# Single Species, Multi Season Occupancy analyais

# Northern Spotted Owl (Strix occidentalis caurina) in California.
# s=55 sites visited up to K=5 times per season between 1997 and 2001 (Y=5).
# Detection probabilities relatively constant within years, but likely different among years.

# Using RMark to fit a Random Occupancy model

# 2018-08-15 Code contributed by Carl James Schwarz (cschwarz@stat.sfu.ca)

# The random occupancy model is fit in MARK as described in
#    https://sites.warnercnr.colostate.edu/gwhite/occupancy-estimation-robust-design/
#
# We need to set gamma = 1-epsilon using design matrices
#
#   One model often of interest is the random extinction and colonization model, 
#    where the probability of a site being occupied at time t+1 is the same regardless 
#    of whether or not the site was occupied at time t.  
#   You can obtain estimates for this model in MARK by clever 
#  coding of the design matrix.  

#  Suppose the epsilon of interest is parameter 2 in the PIM, 
#  and the gamma of interest is parameter 3 in the PIM.  
#  Use a common beta parameter for both epsilon and gamma, 
#  i.e., there will be a single column that is modeled by both rows 2 and 3 of the design matrix.  
#   If you specify a logit link for both epsilon and gamma, and code epsilon as -1 
#   in the design matrix and gamma as +1, the result is the model with 1 - epsilon = gamma.  
#   The design matrix looks like:
#    Columns: B1 B2 B3
#  Row 1: 1 0 0
#  Row 2: 0 -1 0  This is epsilon 
#  Row 3: 0 1 0   This is gamma   
# 
# Unfortunately, RMark does not allow you fit this model directly because only the logit link is
# suported.
#
# You can get the equivalent of a random occupancy model by stacking the data as shown below.
# No estimates of epsilon or gamma are available as they are fixed by the psi values. 

# In most cases, the random occupancy model is seldom a good fit to the data.
#  Packages

library(readxl)
library(RMark)
## This is RMark 2.2.5
##  Documentation available at http://www.phidot.org/software/mark/rmark/RMarkDocumentation.zip
library(ggplot2)

# Get the RPResence additional functions 
source(file.path("..","..","..","AdditionalFunctions","RMark.additional.functions.R"))


# get the data read in
# Data for detections should be a data frame with rows corresponding to sites
# and columns to visits.
# The usual 1=detected; 0=not detected; NA=not visited is used.

input.data <- read.csv(file.path("..","NSO.csv"), header=FALSE, skip=2, na.strings="-")
input.data$V1 <- NULL # drop the site number

# do some basic checks on your data 
# e.g. check number of sites; number of visits etc
nrow(input.data)
## [1] 55
ncol(input.data)
## [1] 40
range(input.data, na.rm=TRUE)
## [1] 0 1
sum(is.na(input.data))
## [1] 752
# Extract the history records and create a capture history
input.history <- data.frame(freq=1,
                            ch=apply(input.data,1,paste, collapse=""), stringsAsFactors=FALSE)
head(input.history)
##   freq                                                               ch
## 1    1 0111NANANANA010NANANANANA11NANANANANANA011NANANANANA0101NANANANA
## 2    1   00NANANANANANA000NANANANANA000NANANANANA000110NANA0011NANANANA
## 3    1           1000111NA0100NANANANA0001NANANANA000000NANA00000NANANA
## 4    1       111NANANANANA10NANANANANANA011NANANANANA00000100000011NANA
## 5    1              000000NANA0000000NA000000NANA000000NANA0111NANANANA
## 6    1       1NANANANANANANA000111NANA0111NANANANA01111NANANA011111NANA
# Change any NA to . in the chapter history
input.history$ch <- gsub("NA",".", input.history$ch, fixed=TRUE)
head(input.history)
##   freq                                       ch
## 1    1 0111....010.....11......011.....0101....
## 2    1 00......000.....000.....000110..0011....
## 3    1 1000111.0100....0001....000000..00000...
## 4    1 111.....10......011.....00000100000011..
## 5    1 000000..0000000.000000..000000..0111....
## 6    1 1.......000111..0111....01111...011111..
# do some basic checks on your data 
# e.g. check number of sites; number of visits etc
nrow(input.history)
## [1] 55
# Create the data structure
max.visit.per.year <- 8
n.season <- 5

# Creata stacked version of the data for fitting a random occupancy model
input.history.ro <- RMark.random.occup.stack(input.history, surveys.per.season=rep(max.visit.per.year,n.season))
## Loading required package: plyr
summary(input.history.ro)
##       freq        ch                Season 
##  Min.   :1   Length:275         Min.   :1  
##  1st Qu.:1   Class :character   1st Qu.:2  
##  Median :1   Mode  :character   Median :3  
##  Mean   :1                      Mean   :3  
##  3rd Qu.:1                      3rd Qu.:4  
##  Max.   :1                      Max.   :5
nso.data.ro <- process.data(data=input.history.ro, groups="Season", model="Occupancy")
## Warning in process.data(data = input.history.ro, groups = "Season", model = "Occupancy"): 
##   Season  is not a factor variable. Coercing to factor.
summary(nso.data.ro)
##                  Length Class      Mode     
## data              4     data.frame list     
## model             1     -none-     character
## mixtures          1     -none-     numeric  
## freq              5     data.frame list     
## nocc              1     -none-     numeric  
## nocc.secondary    0     -none-     NULL     
## time.intervals   40     -none-     numeric  
## begin.time        1     -none-     numeric  
## age.unit          1     -none-     numeric  
## initial.ages      5     -none-     numeric  
## group.covariates  1     data.frame list     
## nstrata           1     -none-     numeric  
## strata.labels     0     -none-     NULL     
## counts            0     -none-     NULL     
## reverse           1     -none-     logical  
## areas             0     -none-     NULL     
## events            0     -none-     NULL
# What are the parameter names for Single Season Single Species models
setup.parameters("Occupancy", check=TRUE)
## [1] "p"   "Psi"
# Fit a models.
# Note that formula DO NOT HAVE AN = SIGN
mod.fit <- RMark::mark(nso.data.ro,
                   model="Occupancy",
                   model.parameters=list(
                     Psi   =list(formula=~Season), # Occupancy eash year
                     p     =list(formula=~1))
                  )
## 
## Output summary for Occupancy model
## Name : p(~1)Psi(~Season) 
## 
## Npar :  6
## -2lnL:  1446.263
## AICc :  1458.576
## 
## Beta
##                   estimate        se        lcl       ucl
## p:(Intercept)   -0.0293390 0.0757494 -0.1778078 0.1191298
## Psi:(Intercept)  0.5706807 0.2997363 -0.0168024 1.1581638
## Psi:Season2     -0.1409865 0.4158036 -0.9559616 0.6739887
## Psi:Season3     -0.3833161 0.4105010 -1.1878981 0.4212658
## Psi:Season4     -0.2632128 0.4098293 -1.0664782 0.5400526
## Psi:Season5     -0.2614794 0.4100194 -1.0651174 0.5421586
## 
## 
## Real Parameter p
##                       1         2         3         4         5         6
## Group:Season1 0.4926658 0.4926658 0.4926658 0.4926658 0.4926658 0.4926658
## Group:Season2 0.4926658 0.4926658 0.4926658 0.4926658 0.4926658 0.4926658
## Group:Season3 0.4926658 0.4926658 0.4926658 0.4926658 0.4926658 0.4926658
## Group:Season4 0.4926658 0.4926658 0.4926658 0.4926658 0.4926658 0.4926658
## Group:Season5 0.4926658 0.4926658 0.4926658 0.4926658 0.4926658 0.4926658
##                       7         8         9        10        11        12
## Group:Season1 0.4926658 0.4926658 0.4926658 0.4926658 0.4926658 0.4926658
## Group:Season2 0.4926658 0.4926658 0.4926658 0.4926658 0.4926658 0.4926658
## Group:Season3 0.4926658 0.4926658 0.4926658 0.4926658 0.4926658 0.4926658
## Group:Season4 0.4926658 0.4926658 0.4926658 0.4926658 0.4926658 0.4926658
## Group:Season5 0.4926658 0.4926658 0.4926658 0.4926658 0.4926658 0.4926658
##                      13        14        15        16        17        18
## Group:Season1 0.4926658 0.4926658 0.4926658 0.4926658 0.4926658 0.4926658
## Group:Season2 0.4926658 0.4926658 0.4926658 0.4926658 0.4926658 0.4926658
## Group:Season3 0.4926658 0.4926658 0.4926658 0.4926658 0.4926658 0.4926658
## Group:Season4 0.4926658 0.4926658 0.4926658 0.4926658 0.4926658 0.4926658
## Group:Season5 0.4926658 0.4926658 0.4926658 0.4926658 0.4926658 0.4926658
##                      19        20        21        22        23        24
## Group:Season1 0.4926658 0.4926658 0.4926658 0.4926658 0.4926658 0.4926658
## Group:Season2 0.4926658 0.4926658 0.4926658 0.4926658 0.4926658 0.4926658
## Group:Season3 0.4926658 0.4926658 0.4926658 0.4926658 0.4926658 0.4926658
## Group:Season4 0.4926658 0.4926658 0.4926658 0.4926658 0.4926658 0.4926658
## Group:Season5 0.4926658 0.4926658 0.4926658 0.4926658 0.4926658 0.4926658
##                      25        26        27        28        29        30
## Group:Season1 0.4926658 0.4926658 0.4926658 0.4926658 0.4926658 0.4926658
## Group:Season2 0.4926658 0.4926658 0.4926658 0.4926658 0.4926658 0.4926658
## Group:Season3 0.4926658 0.4926658 0.4926658 0.4926658 0.4926658 0.4926658
## Group:Season4 0.4926658 0.4926658 0.4926658 0.4926658 0.4926658 0.4926658
## Group:Season5 0.4926658 0.4926658 0.4926658 0.4926658 0.4926658 0.4926658
##                      31        32        33        34        35        36
## Group:Season1 0.4926658 0.4926658 0.4926658 0.4926658 0.4926658 0.4926658
## Group:Season2 0.4926658 0.4926658 0.4926658 0.4926658 0.4926658 0.4926658
## Group:Season3 0.4926658 0.4926658 0.4926658 0.4926658 0.4926658 0.4926658
## Group:Season4 0.4926658 0.4926658 0.4926658 0.4926658 0.4926658 0.4926658
## Group:Season5 0.4926658 0.4926658 0.4926658 0.4926658 0.4926658 0.4926658
##                      37        38        39        40
## Group:Season1 0.4926658 0.4926658 0.4926658 0.4926658
## Group:Season2 0.4926658 0.4926658 0.4926658 0.4926658
## Group:Season3 0.4926658 0.4926658 0.4926658 0.4926658
## Group:Season4 0.4926658 0.4926658 0.4926658 0.4926658
## Group:Season5 0.4926658 0.4926658 0.4926658 0.4926658
## 
## 
## Real Parameter Psi
##                       1
## Group:Season1 0.6389202
## Group:Season2 0.6058006
## Group:Season3 0.5467046
## Group:Season4 0.5762671
## Group:Season5 0.5766903
summary(mod.fit)
## Output summary for Occupancy model
## Name : p(~1)Psi(~Season) 
## 
## Npar :  6
## -2lnL:  1446.263
## AICc :  1458.576
## 
## Beta
##                   estimate        se        lcl       ucl
## p:(Intercept)   -0.0293390 0.0757494 -0.1778078 0.1191298
## Psi:(Intercept)  0.5706807 0.2997363 -0.0168024 1.1581638
## Psi:Season2     -0.1409865 0.4158036 -0.9559616 0.6739887
## Psi:Season3     -0.3833161 0.4105010 -1.1878981 0.4212658
## Psi:Season4     -0.2632128 0.4098293 -1.0664782 0.5400526
## Psi:Season5     -0.2614794 0.4100194 -1.0651174 0.5421586
## 
## 
## Real Parameter p
##                       1         2         3         4         5         6
## Group:Season1 0.4926658 0.4926658 0.4926658 0.4926658 0.4926658 0.4926658
## Group:Season2 0.4926658 0.4926658 0.4926658 0.4926658 0.4926658 0.4926658
## Group:Season3 0.4926658 0.4926658 0.4926658 0.4926658 0.4926658 0.4926658
## Group:Season4 0.4926658 0.4926658 0.4926658 0.4926658 0.4926658 0.4926658
## Group:Season5 0.4926658 0.4926658 0.4926658 0.4926658 0.4926658 0.4926658
##                       7         8         9        10        11        12
## Group:Season1 0.4926658 0.4926658 0.4926658 0.4926658 0.4926658 0.4926658
## Group:Season2 0.4926658 0.4926658 0.4926658 0.4926658 0.4926658 0.4926658
## Group:Season3 0.4926658 0.4926658 0.4926658 0.4926658 0.4926658 0.4926658
## Group:Season4 0.4926658 0.4926658 0.4926658 0.4926658 0.4926658 0.4926658
## Group:Season5 0.4926658 0.4926658 0.4926658 0.4926658 0.4926658 0.4926658
##                      13        14        15        16        17        18
## Group:Season1 0.4926658 0.4926658 0.4926658 0.4926658 0.4926658 0.4926658
## Group:Season2 0.4926658 0.4926658 0.4926658 0.4926658 0.4926658 0.4926658
## Group:Season3 0.4926658 0.4926658 0.4926658 0.4926658 0.4926658 0.4926658
## Group:Season4 0.4926658 0.4926658 0.4926658 0.4926658 0.4926658 0.4926658
## Group:Season5 0.4926658 0.4926658 0.4926658 0.4926658 0.4926658 0.4926658
##                      19        20        21        22        23        24
## Group:Season1 0.4926658 0.4926658 0.4926658 0.4926658 0.4926658 0.4926658
## Group:Season2 0.4926658 0.4926658 0.4926658 0.4926658 0.4926658 0.4926658
## Group:Season3 0.4926658 0.4926658 0.4926658 0.4926658 0.4926658 0.4926658
## Group:Season4 0.4926658 0.4926658 0.4926658 0.4926658 0.4926658 0.4926658
## Group:Season5 0.4926658 0.4926658 0.4926658 0.4926658 0.4926658 0.4926658
##                      25        26        27        28        29        30
## Group:Season1 0.4926658 0.4926658 0.4926658 0.4926658 0.4926658 0.4926658
## Group:Season2 0.4926658 0.4926658 0.4926658 0.4926658 0.4926658 0.4926658
## Group:Season3 0.4926658 0.4926658 0.4926658 0.4926658 0.4926658 0.4926658
## Group:Season4 0.4926658 0.4926658 0.4926658 0.4926658 0.4926658 0.4926658
## Group:Season5 0.4926658 0.4926658 0.4926658 0.4926658 0.4926658 0.4926658
##                      31        32        33        34        35        36
## Group:Season1 0.4926658 0.4926658 0.4926658 0.4926658 0.4926658 0.4926658
## Group:Season2 0.4926658 0.4926658 0.4926658 0.4926658 0.4926658 0.4926658
## Group:Season3 0.4926658 0.4926658 0.4926658 0.4926658 0.4926658 0.4926658
## Group:Season4 0.4926658 0.4926658 0.4926658 0.4926658 0.4926658 0.4926658
## Group:Season5 0.4926658 0.4926658 0.4926658 0.4926658 0.4926658 0.4926658
##                      37        38        39        40
## Group:Season1 0.4926658 0.4926658 0.4926658 0.4926658
## Group:Season2 0.4926658 0.4926658 0.4926658 0.4926658
## Group:Season3 0.4926658 0.4926658 0.4926658 0.4926658
## Group:Season4 0.4926658 0.4926658 0.4926658 0.4926658
## Group:Season5 0.4926658 0.4926658 0.4926658 0.4926658
## 
## 
## Real Parameter Psi
##                       1
## Group:Season1 0.6389202
## Group:Season2 0.6058006
## Group:Season3 0.5467046
## Group:Season4 0.5762671
## Group:Season5 0.5766903
names(mod.fit)
##  [1] "data"             "model"            "title"           
##  [4] "model.name"       "links"            "mixtures"        
##  [7] "call"             "parameters"       "time.intervals"  
## [10] "number.of.groups" "group.labels"     "nocc"            
## [13] "begin.time"       "covariates"       "fixed"           
## [16] "design.matrix"    "pims"             "design.data"     
## [19] "strata.labels"    "mlogit.list"      "profile.int"     
## [22] "simplify"         "model.parameters" "results"         
## [25] "output"
names(mod.fit$results)
##  [1] "lnl"              "deviance"         "deviance.df"     
##  [4] "npar"             "n"                "AICc"            
##  [7] "beta"             "real"             "beta.vcv"        
## [10] "derived"          "derived.vcv"      "covariate.values"
## [13] "singular"         "real.vcv"
# Estimate of initial occupancy
names(mod.fit$results$real)
## [1] "estimate" "se"       "lcl"      "ucl"      "fixed"    "note"
mod.fit$results$real
##               estimate        se       lcl       ucl fixed    note
## p g1 a0 t1   0.4926658 0.0189333 0.4556648 0.5297473              
## Psi g1 a0 t1 0.6389202 0.0691495 0.4957995 0.7609989              
## Psi g2 a0 t1 0.6058006 0.0690097 0.4658775 0.7302893              
## Psi g3 a0 t1 0.5467046 0.0696824 0.4100510 0.6766642              
## Psi g4 a0 t1 0.5762671 0.0683988 0.4399037 0.7019265              
## Psi g5 a0 t1 0.5766903 0.0684535 0.4401868 0.7024113
get.real(mod.fit, parameter="Psi", se=TRUE)
##              all.diff.index par.index  estimate        se       lcl
## Psi g1 a0 t1            201         2 0.6389202 0.0691495 0.4957995
## Psi g2 a0 t1            202         3 0.6058006 0.0690097 0.4658775
## Psi g3 a0 t1            203         4 0.5467046 0.0696824 0.4100510
## Psi g4 a0 t1            204         5 0.5762671 0.0683988 0.4399037
## Psi g5 a0 t1            205         6 0.5766903 0.0684535 0.4401868
##                    ucl fixed    note group age time Age Time Season
## Psi g1 a0 t1 0.7609989                   1   0    1   0    0      1
## Psi g2 a0 t1 0.7302893                   2   0    1   0    0      2
## Psi g3 a0 t1 0.6766642                   3   0    1   0    0      3
## Psi g4 a0 t1 0.7019265                   4   0    1   0    0      4
## Psi g5 a0 t1 0.7024113                   5   0    1   0    0      5
get.real(mod.fit, parameter="p"  , se=TRUE)
##              all.diff.index par.index  estimate        se       lcl
## p g1 a0 t1                1         1 0.4926658 0.0189333 0.4556648
## p g1 a1 t2                2         1 0.4926658 0.0189333 0.4556648
## p g1 a2 t3                3         1 0.4926658 0.0189333 0.4556648
## p g1 a3 t4                4         1 0.4926658 0.0189333 0.4556648
## p g1 a4 t5                5         1 0.4926658 0.0189333 0.4556648
## p g1 a5 t6                6         1 0.4926658 0.0189333 0.4556648
## p g1 a6 t7                7         1 0.4926658 0.0189333 0.4556648
## p g1 a7 t8                8         1 0.4926658 0.0189333 0.4556648
## p g1 a8 t9                9         1 0.4926658 0.0189333 0.4556648
## p g1 a9 t10              10         1 0.4926658 0.0189333 0.4556648
## p g1 a10 t11             11         1 0.4926658 0.0189333 0.4556648
## p g1 a11 t12             12         1 0.4926658 0.0189333 0.4556648
## p g1 a12 t13             13         1 0.4926658 0.0189333 0.4556648
## p g1 a13 t14             14         1 0.4926658 0.0189333 0.4556648
## p g1 a14 t15             15         1 0.4926658 0.0189333 0.4556648
## p g1 a15 t16             16         1 0.4926658 0.0189333 0.4556648
## p g1 a16 t17             17         1 0.4926658 0.0189333 0.4556648
## p g1 a17 t18             18         1 0.4926658 0.0189333 0.4556648
## p g1 a18 t19             19         1 0.4926658 0.0189333 0.4556648
## p g1 a19 t20             20         1 0.4926658 0.0189333 0.4556648
## p g1 a20 t21             21         1 0.4926658 0.0189333 0.4556648
## p g1 a21 t22             22         1 0.4926658 0.0189333 0.4556648
## p g1 a22 t23             23         1 0.4926658 0.0189333 0.4556648
## p g1 a23 t24             24         1 0.4926658 0.0189333 0.4556648
## p g1 a24 t25             25         1 0.4926658 0.0189333 0.4556648
## p g1 a25 t26             26         1 0.4926658 0.0189333 0.4556648
## p g1 a26 t27             27         1 0.4926658 0.0189333 0.4556648
## p g1 a27 t28             28         1 0.4926658 0.0189333 0.4556648
## p g1 a28 t29             29         1 0.4926658 0.0189333 0.4556648
## p g1 a29 t30             30         1 0.4926658 0.0189333 0.4556648
## p g1 a30 t31             31         1 0.4926658 0.0189333 0.4556648
## p g1 a31 t32             32         1 0.4926658 0.0189333 0.4556648
## p g1 a32 t33             33         1 0.4926658 0.0189333 0.4556648
## p g1 a33 t34             34         1 0.4926658 0.0189333 0.4556648
## p g1 a34 t35             35         1 0.4926658 0.0189333 0.4556648
## p g1 a35 t36             36         1 0.4926658 0.0189333 0.4556648
## p g1 a36 t37             37         1 0.4926658 0.0189333 0.4556648
## p g1 a37 t38             38         1 0.4926658 0.0189333 0.4556648
## p g1 a38 t39             39         1 0.4926658 0.0189333 0.4556648
## p g1 a39 t40             40         1 0.4926658 0.0189333 0.4556648
## p g2 a0 t1               41         1 0.4926658 0.0189333 0.4556648
## p g2 a1 t2               42         1 0.4926658 0.0189333 0.4556648
## p g2 a2 t3               43         1 0.4926658 0.0189333 0.4556648
## p g2 a3 t4               44         1 0.4926658 0.0189333 0.4556648
## p g2 a4 t5               45         1 0.4926658 0.0189333 0.4556648
## p g2 a5 t6               46         1 0.4926658 0.0189333 0.4556648
## p g2 a6 t7               47         1 0.4926658 0.0189333 0.4556648
## p g2 a7 t8               48         1 0.4926658 0.0189333 0.4556648
## p g2 a8 t9               49         1 0.4926658 0.0189333 0.4556648
## p g2 a9 t10              50         1 0.4926658 0.0189333 0.4556648
## p g2 a10 t11             51         1 0.4926658 0.0189333 0.4556648
## p g2 a11 t12             52         1 0.4926658 0.0189333 0.4556648
## p g2 a12 t13             53         1 0.4926658 0.0189333 0.4556648
## p g2 a13 t14             54         1 0.4926658 0.0189333 0.4556648
## p g2 a14 t15             55         1 0.4926658 0.0189333 0.4556648
## p g2 a15 t16             56         1 0.4926658 0.0189333 0.4556648
## p g2 a16 t17             57         1 0.4926658 0.0189333 0.4556648
## p g2 a17 t18             58         1 0.4926658 0.0189333 0.4556648
## p g2 a18 t19             59         1 0.4926658 0.0189333 0.4556648
## p g2 a19 t20             60         1 0.4926658 0.0189333 0.4556648
## p g2 a20 t21             61         1 0.4926658 0.0189333 0.4556648
## p g2 a21 t22             62         1 0.4926658 0.0189333 0.4556648
## p g2 a22 t23             63         1 0.4926658 0.0189333 0.4556648
## p g2 a23 t24             64         1 0.4926658 0.0189333 0.4556648
## p g2 a24 t25             65         1 0.4926658 0.0189333 0.4556648
## p g2 a25 t26             66         1 0.4926658 0.0189333 0.4556648
## p g2 a26 t27             67         1 0.4926658 0.0189333 0.4556648
## p g2 a27 t28             68         1 0.4926658 0.0189333 0.4556648
## p g2 a28 t29             69         1 0.4926658 0.0189333 0.4556648
## p g2 a29 t30             70         1 0.4926658 0.0189333 0.4556648
## p g2 a30 t31             71         1 0.4926658 0.0189333 0.4556648
## p g2 a31 t32             72         1 0.4926658 0.0189333 0.4556648
## p g2 a32 t33             73         1 0.4926658 0.0189333 0.4556648
## p g2 a33 t34             74         1 0.4926658 0.0189333 0.4556648
## p g2 a34 t35             75         1 0.4926658 0.0189333 0.4556648
## p g2 a35 t36             76         1 0.4926658 0.0189333 0.4556648
## p g2 a36 t37             77         1 0.4926658 0.0189333 0.4556648
## p g2 a37 t38             78         1 0.4926658 0.0189333 0.4556648
## p g2 a38 t39             79         1 0.4926658 0.0189333 0.4556648
## p g2 a39 t40             80         1 0.4926658 0.0189333 0.4556648
## p g3 a0 t1               81         1 0.4926658 0.0189333 0.4556648
## p g3 a1 t2               82         1 0.4926658 0.0189333 0.4556648
## p g3 a2 t3               83         1 0.4926658 0.0189333 0.4556648
## p g3 a3 t4               84         1 0.4926658 0.0189333 0.4556648
## p g3 a4 t5               85         1 0.4926658 0.0189333 0.4556648
## p g3 a5 t6               86         1 0.4926658 0.0189333 0.4556648
## p g3 a6 t7               87         1 0.4926658 0.0189333 0.4556648
## p g3 a7 t8               88         1 0.4926658 0.0189333 0.4556648
## p g3 a8 t9               89         1 0.4926658 0.0189333 0.4556648
## p g3 a9 t10              90         1 0.4926658 0.0189333 0.4556648
## p g3 a10 t11             91         1 0.4926658 0.0189333 0.4556648
## p g3 a11 t12             92         1 0.4926658 0.0189333 0.4556648
## p g3 a12 t13             93         1 0.4926658 0.0189333 0.4556648
## p g3 a13 t14             94         1 0.4926658 0.0189333 0.4556648
## p g3 a14 t15             95         1 0.4926658 0.0189333 0.4556648
## p g3 a15 t16             96         1 0.4926658 0.0189333 0.4556648
## p g3 a16 t17             97         1 0.4926658 0.0189333 0.4556648
## p g3 a17 t18             98         1 0.4926658 0.0189333 0.4556648
## p g3 a18 t19             99         1 0.4926658 0.0189333 0.4556648
## p g3 a19 t20            100         1 0.4926658 0.0189333 0.4556648
## p g3 a20 t21            101         1 0.4926658 0.0189333 0.4556648
## p g3 a21 t22            102         1 0.4926658 0.0189333 0.4556648
## p g3 a22 t23            103         1 0.4926658 0.0189333 0.4556648
## p g3 a23 t24            104         1 0.4926658 0.0189333 0.4556648
## p g3 a24 t25            105         1 0.4926658 0.0189333 0.4556648
## p g3 a25 t26            106         1 0.4926658 0.0189333 0.4556648
## p g3 a26 t27            107         1 0.4926658 0.0189333 0.4556648
## p g3 a27 t28            108         1 0.4926658 0.0189333 0.4556648
## p g3 a28 t29            109         1 0.4926658 0.0189333 0.4556648
## p g3 a29 t30            110         1 0.4926658 0.0189333 0.4556648
## p g3 a30 t31            111         1 0.4926658 0.0189333 0.4556648
## p g3 a31 t32            112         1 0.4926658 0.0189333 0.4556648
## p g3 a32 t33            113         1 0.4926658 0.0189333 0.4556648
## p g3 a33 t34            114         1 0.4926658 0.0189333 0.4556648
## p g3 a34 t35            115         1 0.4926658 0.0189333 0.4556648
## p g3 a35 t36            116         1 0.4926658 0.0189333 0.4556648
## p g3 a36 t37            117         1 0.4926658 0.0189333 0.4556648
## p g3 a37 t38            118         1 0.4926658 0.0189333 0.4556648
## p g3 a38 t39            119         1 0.4926658 0.0189333 0.4556648
## p g3 a39 t40            120         1 0.4926658 0.0189333 0.4556648
## p g4 a0 t1              121         1 0.4926658 0.0189333 0.4556648
## p g4 a1 t2              122         1 0.4926658 0.0189333 0.4556648
## p g4 a2 t3              123         1 0.4926658 0.0189333 0.4556648
## p g4 a3 t4              124         1 0.4926658 0.0189333 0.4556648
## p g4 a4 t5              125         1 0.4926658 0.0189333 0.4556648
## p g4 a5 t6              126         1 0.4926658 0.0189333 0.4556648
## p g4 a6 t7              127         1 0.4926658 0.0189333 0.4556648
## p g4 a7 t8              128         1 0.4926658 0.0189333 0.4556648
## p g4 a8 t9              129         1 0.4926658 0.0189333 0.4556648
## p g4 a9 t10             130         1 0.4926658 0.0189333 0.4556648
## p g4 a10 t11            131         1 0.4926658 0.0189333 0.4556648
## p g4 a11 t12            132         1 0.4926658 0.0189333 0.4556648
## p g4 a12 t13            133         1 0.4926658 0.0189333 0.4556648
## p g4 a13 t14            134         1 0.4926658 0.0189333 0.4556648
## p g4 a14 t15            135         1 0.4926658 0.0189333 0.4556648
## p g4 a15 t16            136         1 0.4926658 0.0189333 0.4556648
## p g4 a16 t17            137         1 0.4926658 0.0189333 0.4556648
## p g4 a17 t18            138         1 0.4926658 0.0189333 0.4556648
## p g4 a18 t19            139         1 0.4926658 0.0189333 0.4556648
## p g4 a19 t20            140         1 0.4926658 0.0189333 0.4556648
## p g4 a20 t21            141         1 0.4926658 0.0189333 0.4556648
## p g4 a21 t22            142         1 0.4926658 0.0189333 0.4556648
## p g4 a22 t23            143         1 0.4926658 0.0189333 0.4556648
## p g4 a23 t24            144         1 0.4926658 0.0189333 0.4556648
## p g4 a24 t25            145         1 0.4926658 0.0189333 0.4556648
## p g4 a25 t26            146         1 0.4926658 0.0189333 0.4556648
## p g4 a26 t27            147         1 0.4926658 0.0189333 0.4556648
## p g4 a27 t28            148         1 0.4926658 0.0189333 0.4556648
## p g4 a28 t29            149         1 0.4926658 0.0189333 0.4556648
## p g4 a29 t30            150         1 0.4926658 0.0189333 0.4556648
## p g4 a30 t31            151         1 0.4926658 0.0189333 0.4556648
## p g4 a31 t32            152         1 0.4926658 0.0189333 0.4556648
## p g4 a32 t33            153         1 0.4926658 0.0189333 0.4556648
## p g4 a33 t34            154         1 0.4926658 0.0189333 0.4556648
## p g4 a34 t35            155         1 0.4926658 0.0189333 0.4556648
## p g4 a35 t36            156         1 0.4926658 0.0189333 0.4556648
## p g4 a36 t37            157         1 0.4926658 0.0189333 0.4556648
## p g4 a37 t38            158         1 0.4926658 0.0189333 0.4556648
## p g4 a38 t39            159         1 0.4926658 0.0189333 0.4556648
## p g4 a39 t40            160         1 0.4926658 0.0189333 0.4556648
## p g5 a0 t1              161         1 0.4926658 0.0189333 0.4556648
## p g5 a1 t2              162         1 0.4926658 0.0189333 0.4556648
## p g5 a2 t3              163         1 0.4926658 0.0189333 0.4556648
## p g5 a3 t4              164         1 0.4926658 0.0189333 0.4556648
## p g5 a4 t5              165         1 0.4926658 0.0189333 0.4556648
## p g5 a5 t6              166         1 0.4926658 0.0189333 0.4556648
## p g5 a6 t7              167         1 0.4926658 0.0189333 0.4556648
## p g5 a7 t8              168         1 0.4926658 0.0189333 0.4556648
## p g5 a8 t9              169         1 0.4926658 0.0189333 0.4556648
## p g5 a9 t10             170         1 0.4926658 0.0189333 0.4556648
## p g5 a10 t11            171         1 0.4926658 0.0189333 0.4556648
## p g5 a11 t12            172         1 0.4926658 0.0189333 0.4556648
## p g5 a12 t13            173         1 0.4926658 0.0189333 0.4556648
## p g5 a13 t14            174         1 0.4926658 0.0189333 0.4556648
## p g5 a14 t15            175         1 0.4926658 0.0189333 0.4556648
## p g5 a15 t16            176         1 0.4926658 0.0189333 0.4556648
## p g5 a16 t17            177         1 0.4926658 0.0189333 0.4556648
## p g5 a17 t18            178         1 0.4926658 0.0189333 0.4556648
## p g5 a18 t19            179         1 0.4926658 0.0189333 0.4556648
## p g5 a19 t20            180         1 0.4926658 0.0189333 0.4556648
## p g5 a20 t21            181         1 0.4926658 0.0189333 0.4556648
## p g5 a21 t22            182         1 0.4926658 0.0189333 0.4556648
## p g5 a22 t23            183         1 0.4926658 0.0189333 0.4556648
## p g5 a23 t24            184         1 0.4926658 0.0189333 0.4556648
## p g5 a24 t25            185         1 0.4926658 0.0189333 0.4556648
## p g5 a25 t26            186         1 0.4926658 0.0189333 0.4556648
## p g5 a26 t27            187         1 0.4926658 0.0189333 0.4556648
## p g5 a27 t28            188         1 0.4926658 0.0189333 0.4556648
## p g5 a28 t29            189         1 0.4926658 0.0189333 0.4556648
## p g5 a29 t30            190         1 0.4926658 0.0189333 0.4556648
## p g5 a30 t31            191         1 0.4926658 0.0189333 0.4556648
## p g5 a31 t32            192         1 0.4926658 0.0189333 0.4556648
## p g5 a32 t33            193         1 0.4926658 0.0189333 0.4556648
## p g5 a33 t34            194         1 0.4926658 0.0189333 0.4556648
## p g5 a34 t35            195         1 0.4926658 0.0189333 0.4556648
## p g5 a35 t36            196         1 0.4926658 0.0189333 0.4556648
## p g5 a36 t37            197         1 0.4926658 0.0189333 0.4556648
## p g5 a37 t38            198         1 0.4926658 0.0189333 0.4556648
## p g5 a38 t39            199         1 0.4926658 0.0189333 0.4556648
## p g5 a39 t40            200         1 0.4926658 0.0189333 0.4556648
##                    ucl fixed    note group age time Age Time Season
## p g1 a0 t1   0.5297473                   1   0    1   0    0      1
## p g1 a1 t2   0.5297473                   1   1    2   1    1      1
## p g1 a2 t3   0.5297473                   1   2    3   2    2      1
## p g1 a3 t4   0.5297473                   1   3    4   3    3      1
## p g1 a4 t5   0.5297473                   1   4    5   4    4      1
## p g1 a5 t6   0.5297473                   1   5    6   5    5      1
## p g1 a6 t7   0.5297473                   1   6    7   6    6      1
## p g1 a7 t8   0.5297473                   1   7    8   7    7      1
## p g1 a8 t9   0.5297473                   1   8    9   8    8      1
## p g1 a9 t10  0.5297473                   1   9   10   9    9      1
## p g1 a10 t11 0.5297473                   1  10   11  10   10      1
## p g1 a11 t12 0.5297473                   1  11   12  11   11      1
## p g1 a12 t13 0.5297473                   1  12   13  12   12      1
## p g1 a13 t14 0.5297473                   1  13   14  13   13      1
## p g1 a14 t15 0.5297473                   1  14   15  14   14      1
## p g1 a15 t16 0.5297473                   1  15   16  15   15      1
## p g1 a16 t17 0.5297473                   1  16   17  16   16      1
## p g1 a17 t18 0.5297473                   1  17   18  17   17      1
## p g1 a18 t19 0.5297473                   1  18   19  18   18      1
## p g1 a19 t20 0.5297473                   1  19   20  19   19      1
## p g1 a20 t21 0.5297473                   1  20   21  20   20      1
## p g1 a21 t22 0.5297473                   1  21   22  21   21      1
## p g1 a22 t23 0.5297473                   1  22   23  22   22      1
## p g1 a23 t24 0.5297473                   1  23   24  23   23      1
## p g1 a24 t25 0.5297473                   1  24   25  24   24      1
## p g1 a25 t26 0.5297473                   1  25   26  25   25      1
## p g1 a26 t27 0.5297473                   1  26   27  26   26      1
## p g1 a27 t28 0.5297473                   1  27   28  27   27      1
## p g1 a28 t29 0.5297473                   1  28   29  28   28      1
## p g1 a29 t30 0.5297473                   1  29   30  29   29      1
## p g1 a30 t31 0.5297473                   1  30   31  30   30      1
## p g1 a31 t32 0.5297473                   1  31   32  31   31      1
## p g1 a32 t33 0.5297473                   1  32   33  32   32      1
## p g1 a33 t34 0.5297473                   1  33   34  33   33      1
## p g1 a34 t35 0.5297473                   1  34   35  34   34      1
## p g1 a35 t36 0.5297473                   1  35   36  35   35      1
## p g1 a36 t37 0.5297473                   1  36   37  36   36      1
## p g1 a37 t38 0.5297473                   1  37   38  37   37      1
## p g1 a38 t39 0.5297473                   1  38   39  38   38      1
## p g1 a39 t40 0.5297473                   1  39   40  39   39      1
## p g2 a0 t1   0.5297473                   2   0    1   0    0      2
## p g2 a1 t2   0.5297473                   2   1    2   1    1      2
## p g2 a2 t3   0.5297473                   2   2    3   2    2      2
## p g2 a3 t4   0.5297473                   2   3    4   3    3      2
## p g2 a4 t5   0.5297473                   2   4    5   4    4      2
## p g2 a5 t6   0.5297473                   2   5    6   5    5      2
## p g2 a6 t7   0.5297473                   2   6    7   6    6      2
## p g2 a7 t8   0.5297473                   2   7    8   7    7      2
## p g2 a8 t9   0.5297473                   2   8    9   8    8      2
## p g2 a9 t10  0.5297473                   2   9   10   9    9      2
## p g2 a10 t11 0.5297473                   2  10   11  10   10      2
## p g2 a11 t12 0.5297473                   2  11   12  11   11      2
## p g2 a12 t13 0.5297473                   2  12   13  12   12      2
## p g2 a13 t14 0.5297473                   2  13   14  13   13      2
## p g2 a14 t15 0.5297473                   2  14   15  14   14      2
## p g2 a15 t16 0.5297473                   2  15   16  15   15      2
## p g2 a16 t17 0.5297473                   2  16   17  16   16      2
## p g2 a17 t18 0.5297473                   2  17   18  17   17      2
## p g2 a18 t19 0.5297473                   2  18   19  18   18      2
## p g2 a19 t20 0.5297473                   2  19   20  19   19      2
## p g2 a20 t21 0.5297473                   2  20   21  20   20      2
## p g2 a21 t22 0.5297473                   2  21   22  21   21      2
## p g2 a22 t23 0.5297473                   2  22   23  22   22      2
## p g2 a23 t24 0.5297473                   2  23   24  23   23      2
## p g2 a24 t25 0.5297473                   2  24   25  24   24      2
## p g2 a25 t26 0.5297473                   2  25   26  25   25      2
## p g2 a26 t27 0.5297473                   2  26   27  26   26      2
## p g2 a27 t28 0.5297473                   2  27   28  27   27      2
## p g2 a28 t29 0.5297473                   2  28   29  28   28      2
## p g2 a29 t30 0.5297473                   2  29   30  29   29      2
## p g2 a30 t31 0.5297473                   2  30   31  30   30      2
## p g2 a31 t32 0.5297473                   2  31   32  31   31      2
## p g2 a32 t33 0.5297473                   2  32   33  32   32      2
## p g2 a33 t34 0.5297473                   2  33   34  33   33      2
## p g2 a34 t35 0.5297473                   2  34   35  34   34      2
## p g2 a35 t36 0.5297473                   2  35   36  35   35      2
## p g2 a36 t37 0.5297473                   2  36   37  36   36      2
## p g2 a37 t38 0.5297473                   2  37   38  37   37      2
## p g2 a38 t39 0.5297473                   2  38   39  38   38      2
## p g2 a39 t40 0.5297473                   2  39   40  39   39      2
## p g3 a0 t1   0.5297473                   3   0    1   0    0      3
## p g3 a1 t2   0.5297473                   3   1    2   1    1      3
## p g3 a2 t3   0.5297473                   3   2    3   2    2      3
## p g3 a3 t4   0.5297473                   3   3    4   3    3      3
## p g3 a4 t5   0.5297473                   3   4    5   4    4      3
## p g3 a5 t6   0.5297473                   3   5    6   5    5      3
## p g3 a6 t7   0.5297473                   3   6    7   6    6      3
## p g3 a7 t8   0.5297473                   3   7    8   7    7      3
## p g3 a8 t9   0.5297473                   3   8    9   8    8      3
## p g3 a9 t10  0.5297473                   3   9   10   9    9      3
## p g3 a10 t11 0.5297473                   3  10   11  10   10      3
## p g3 a11 t12 0.5297473                   3  11   12  11   11      3
## p g3 a12 t13 0.5297473                   3  12   13  12   12      3
## p g3 a13 t14 0.5297473                   3  13   14  13   13      3
## p g3 a14 t15 0.5297473                   3  14   15  14   14      3
## p g3 a15 t16 0.5297473                   3  15   16  15   15      3
## p g3 a16 t17 0.5297473                   3  16   17  16   16      3
## p g3 a17 t18 0.5297473                   3  17   18  17   17      3
## p g3 a18 t19 0.5297473                   3  18   19  18   18      3
## p g3 a19 t20 0.5297473                   3  19   20  19   19      3
## p g3 a20 t21 0.5297473                   3  20   21  20   20      3
## p g3 a21 t22 0.5297473                   3  21   22  21   21      3
## p g3 a22 t23 0.5297473                   3  22   23  22   22      3
## p g3 a23 t24 0.5297473                   3  23   24  23   23      3
## p g3 a24 t25 0.5297473                   3  24   25  24   24      3
## p g3 a25 t26 0.5297473                   3  25   26  25   25      3
## p g3 a26 t27 0.5297473                   3  26   27  26   26      3
## p g3 a27 t28 0.5297473                   3  27   28  27   27      3
## p g3 a28 t29 0.5297473                   3  28   29  28   28      3
## p g3 a29 t30 0.5297473                   3  29   30  29   29      3
## p g3 a30 t31 0.5297473                   3  30   31  30   30      3
## p g3 a31 t32 0.5297473                   3  31   32  31   31      3
## p g3 a32 t33 0.5297473                   3  32   33  32   32      3
## p g3 a33 t34 0.5297473                   3  33   34  33   33      3
## p g3 a34 t35 0.5297473                   3  34   35  34   34      3
## p g3 a35 t36 0.5297473                   3  35   36  35   35      3
## p g3 a36 t37 0.5297473                   3  36   37  36   36      3
## p g3 a37 t38 0.5297473                   3  37   38  37   37      3
## p g3 a38 t39 0.5297473                   3  38   39  38   38      3
## p g3 a39 t40 0.5297473                   3  39   40  39   39      3
## p g4 a0 t1   0.5297473                   4   0    1   0    0      4
## p g4 a1 t2   0.5297473                   4   1    2   1    1      4
## p g4 a2 t3   0.5297473                   4   2    3   2    2      4
## p g4 a3 t4   0.5297473                   4   3    4   3    3      4
## p g4 a4 t5   0.5297473                   4   4    5   4    4      4
## p g4 a5 t6   0.5297473                   4   5    6   5    5      4
## p g4 a6 t7   0.5297473                   4   6    7   6    6      4
## p g4 a7 t8   0.5297473                   4   7    8   7    7      4
## p g4 a8 t9   0.5297473                   4   8    9   8    8      4
## p g4 a9 t10  0.5297473                   4   9   10   9    9      4
## p g4 a10 t11 0.5297473                   4  10   11  10   10      4
## p g4 a11 t12 0.5297473                   4  11   12  11   11      4
## p g4 a12 t13 0.5297473                   4  12   13  12   12      4
## p g4 a13 t14 0.5297473                   4  13   14  13   13      4
## p g4 a14 t15 0.5297473                   4  14   15  14   14      4
## p g4 a15 t16 0.5297473                   4  15   16  15   15      4
## p g4 a16 t17 0.5297473                   4  16   17  16   16      4
## p g4 a17 t18 0.5297473                   4  17   18  17   17      4
## p g4 a18 t19 0.5297473                   4  18   19  18   18      4
## p g4 a19 t20 0.5297473                   4  19   20  19   19      4
## p g4 a20 t21 0.5297473                   4  20   21  20   20      4
## p g4 a21 t22 0.5297473                   4  21   22  21   21      4
## p g4 a22 t23 0.5297473                   4  22   23  22   22      4
## p g4 a23 t24 0.5297473                   4  23   24  23   23      4
## p g4 a24 t25 0.5297473                   4  24   25  24   24      4
## p g4 a25 t26 0.5297473                   4  25   26  25   25      4
## p g4 a26 t27 0.5297473                   4  26   27  26   26      4
## p g4 a27 t28 0.5297473                   4  27   28  27   27      4
## p g4 a28 t29 0.5297473                   4  28   29  28   28      4
## p g4 a29 t30 0.5297473                   4  29   30  29   29      4
## p g4 a30 t31 0.5297473                   4  30   31  30   30      4
## p g4 a31 t32 0.5297473                   4  31   32  31   31      4
## p g4 a32 t33 0.5297473                   4  32   33  32   32      4
## p g4 a33 t34 0.5297473                   4  33   34  33   33      4
## p g4 a34 t35 0.5297473                   4  34   35  34   34      4
## p g4 a35 t36 0.5297473                   4  35   36  35   35      4
## p g4 a36 t37 0.5297473                   4  36   37  36   36      4
## p g4 a37 t38 0.5297473                   4  37   38  37   37      4
## p g4 a38 t39 0.5297473                   4  38   39  38   38      4
## p g4 a39 t40 0.5297473                   4  39   40  39   39      4
## p g5 a0 t1   0.5297473                   5   0    1   0    0      5
## p g5 a1 t2   0.5297473                   5   1    2   1    1      5
## p g5 a2 t3   0.5297473                   5   2    3   2    2      5
## p g5 a3 t4   0.5297473                   5   3    4   3    3      5
## p g5 a4 t5   0.5297473                   5   4    5   4    4      5
## p g5 a5 t6   0.5297473                   5   5    6   5    5      5
## p g5 a6 t7   0.5297473                   5   6    7   6    6      5
## p g5 a7 t8   0.5297473                   5   7    8   7    7      5
## p g5 a8 t9   0.5297473                   5   8    9   8    8      5
## p g5 a9 t10  0.5297473                   5   9   10   9    9      5
## p g5 a10 t11 0.5297473                   5  10   11  10   10      5
## p g5 a11 t12 0.5297473                   5  11   12  11   11      5
## p g5 a12 t13 0.5297473                   5  12   13  12   12      5
## p g5 a13 t14 0.5297473                   5  13   14  13   13      5
## p g5 a14 t15 0.5297473                   5  14   15  14   14      5
## p g5 a15 t16 0.5297473                   5  15   16  15   15      5
## p g5 a16 t17 0.5297473                   5  16   17  16   16      5
## p g5 a17 t18 0.5297473                   5  17   18  17   17      5
## p g5 a18 t19 0.5297473                   5  18   19  18   18      5
## p g5 a19 t20 0.5297473                   5  19   20  19   19      5
## p g5 a20 t21 0.5297473                   5  20   21  20   20      5
## p g5 a21 t22 0.5297473                   5  21   22  21   21      5
## p g5 a22 t23 0.5297473                   5  22   23  22   22      5
## p g5 a23 t24 0.5297473                   5  23   24  23   23      5
## p g5 a24 t25 0.5297473                   5  24   25  24   24      5
## p g5 a25 t26 0.5297473                   5  25   26  25   25      5
## p g5 a26 t27 0.5297473                   5  26   27  26   26      5
## p g5 a27 t28 0.5297473                   5  27   28  27   27      5
## p g5 a28 t29 0.5297473                   5  28   29  28   28      5
## p g5 a29 t30 0.5297473                   5  29   30  29   29      5
## p g5 a30 t31 0.5297473                   5  30   31  30   30      5
## p g5 a31 t32 0.5297473                   5  31   32  31   31      5
## p g5 a32 t33 0.5297473                   5  32   33  32   32      5
## p g5 a33 t34 0.5297473                   5  33   34  33   33      5
## p g5 a34 t35 0.5297473                   5  34   35  34   34      5
## p g5 a35 t36 0.5297473                   5  35   36  35   35      5
## p g5 a36 t37 0.5297473                   5  36   37  36   36      5
## p g5 a37 t38 0.5297473                   5  37   38  37   37      5
## p g5 a38 t39 0.5297473                   5  38   39  38   38      5
## p g5 a39 t40 0.5297473                   5  39   40  39   39      5
# Derived parameters - estimated occupancy for each unit in years 2....
names(mod.fit$results$derived)
## [1] "Occupancy"
mod.fit$results$derived$Occupancy
##    estimate         se       lcl       ucl
## 1 0.6389202 0.06914951 0.4957995 0.7609989
## 2 0.6058006 0.06900974 0.4658775 0.7302893
## 3 0.5467046 0.06968245 0.4100510 0.6766642
## 4 0.5762671 0.06839883 0.4399037 0.7019265
## 5 0.5766903 0.06845351 0.4401868 0.7024113
cleanup(ask=FALSE)