# Single Species Single Season Occupancy 

# Yellow-bellied toad
# Single Season Single Season occupancy 

#  RPresence package

# 2018-11-15 Code contributed by Carl James Schwarz (cschwarz.stat.sfu.cs@gmail.com)
library(readxl)
library(RPresence)
library(ggplot2)

# get the data read in
# Data for detections should be a data frame with rows corresponding to sites
# and columns to visits.
# The usual 1=detected; 0=not detected; NA=not visited is used.

input.history <- readxl::read_excel(file.path("..","YellowBelliedToad.xlsx"),
                                    sheet="detections")

# do some basic checks on your data 
# e.g. check number of sites; number of visits etc
nrow(input.history)
## [1] 572
ncol(input.history)
## [1] 2
range(input.history, na.rm=TRUE)
## [1] 0 1
sum(is.na(input.history))
## [1] 0
head(input.history)
## # A tibble: 6 x 2
##      V1    V2
##   <dbl> <dbl>
## 1     0     0
## 2     0     0
## 3     0     0
## 4     0     0
## 5     0     0
## 6     1     0
# Get the site level covariates - none.



# Get the site x visit (sampling) covariates. 
jdate <- readxl::read_excel(file.path("..","YellowBelliedToad.xlsx"),
                                    sheet="JulianDate")
range(jdate)
## [1] 121 179
# Observational covariate needs to be "stacked" so that sites1...siteS for survey occastion 1
# are then followed by covariate at survey occastion 2 for sites1...siteS, etc

survey.cov <- data.frame(site =rep(1:nrow(input.history) , ncol(input.history)),
                         visit =as.character(rep(1:ncol(input.history), each=nrow(input.history))),  # notice we make a character 
                         jdate =as.vector(unlist(jdate)), 
                         stringsAsFactors=FALSE)
head(survey.cov[,c("visit","site","jdate")],n=50)
##    visit site jdate
## 1      1    1   139
## 2      1    2   128
## 3      1    3   130
## 4      1    4   130
## 5      1    5   128
## 6      1    6   145
## 7      1    7   145
## 8      1    8   127
## 9      1    9   130
## 10     1   10   121
## 11     1   11   121
## 12     1   12   130
## 13     1   13   123
## 14     1   14   133
## 15     1   15   133
## 16     1   16   133
## 17     1   17   133
## 18     1   18   134
## 19     1   19   130
## 20     1   20   121
## 21     1   21   123
## 22     1   22   121
## 23     1   23   156
## 24     1   24   144
## 25     1   25   144
## 26     1   26   132
## 27     1   27   144
## 28     1   28   144
## 29     1   29   132
## 30     1   30   134
## 31     1   31   125
## 32     1   32   130
## 33     1   33   129
## 34     1   34   125
## 35     1   35   127
## 36     1   36   134
## 37     1   37   131
## 38     1   38   126
## 39     1   39   134
## 40     1   40   131
## 41     1   41   133
## 42     1   42   133
## 43     1   43   133
## 44     1   44   126
## 45     1   45   133
## 46     1   46   133
## 47     1   47   133
## 48     1   48   122
## 49     1   49   136
## 50     1   50   136
str(survey.cov)
## 'data.frame':    1144 obs. of  3 variables:
##  $ site : int  1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 ...
##  $ visit: chr  "1" "1" "1" "1" ...
##  $ jdate: num  139 128 130 130 128 145 145 127 130 121 ...
# standarize jdate
survey.cov$jdateS <- (survey.cov$jdate - 150)/10

# check that missing values in history and observer covariates align
select <- is.na(as.vector(unlist(input.history)))
survey.cov[select,]
## [1] site   visit  jdate  jdateS
## <0 rows> (or 0-length row.names)
sum(is.na(survey.cov[!select,]))
## [1] 0
# Create the *.pao file
ybf.pao <- RPresence::createPao(input.history,
                                 #unitcov=site_covar, # no site covariates
                                 survcov=survey.cov, 
                                 title='ybf SSSS')
ybf.pao
## $nunits
## [1] 572
## 
## $nsurveys
## [1] 2
## 
## $nseasons
## [1] 1
## 
## $nmethods
## [1] 1
## 
## $det.data
## # A tibble: 572 x 2
##       V1    V2
##    <dbl> <dbl>
##  1     0     0
##  2     0     0
##  3     0     0
##  4     0     0
##  5     0     0
##  6     1     0
##  7     0     0
##  8     0     0
##  9     0     0
## 10     0     0
## # ... with 562 more rows
## 
## $nunitcov
## [1] 1
## 
## $unitcov
##     TEMP
## 1      1
## 2      2
## 3      3
## 4      4
## 5      5
## 6      6
## 7      7
## 8      8
## 9      9
## 10    10
## 11    11
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## 
## $nsurvcov
## [1] 5
## 
## $survcov
##      site visit jdate jdateS SURVEY
## 1       1     1   139   -1.1      1
## 2       2     1   128   -2.2      1
## 3       3     1   130   -2.0      1
## 4       4     1   130   -2.0      1
## 5       5     1   128   -2.2      1
## 6       6     1   145   -0.5      1
## 7       7     1   145   -0.5      1
## 8       8     1   127   -2.3      1
## 9       9     1   130   -2.0      1
## 10     10     1   121   -2.9      1
## 11     11     1   121   -2.9      1
## 12     12     1   130   -2.0      1
## 13     13     1   123   -2.7      1
## 14     14     1   133   -1.7      1
## 15     15     1   133   -1.7      1
## 16     16     1   133   -1.7      1
## 17     17     1   133   -1.7      1
## 18     18     1   134   -1.6      1
## 19     19     1   130   -2.0      1
## 20     20     1   121   -2.9      1
## 21     21     1   123   -2.7      1
## 22     22     1   121   -2.9      1
## 23     23     1   156    0.6      1
## 24     24     1   144   -0.6      1
## 25     25     1   144   -0.6      1
## 26     26     1   132   -1.8      1
## 27     27     1   144   -0.6      1
## 28     28     1   144   -0.6      1
## 29     29     1   132   -1.8      1
## 30     30     1   134   -1.6      1
## 31     31     1   125   -2.5      1
## 32     32     1   130   -2.0      1
## 33     33     1   129   -2.1      1
## 34     34     1   125   -2.5      1
## 35     35     1   127   -2.3      1
## 36     36     1   134   -1.6      1
## 37     37     1   131   -1.9      1
## 38     38     1   126   -2.4      1
## 39     39     1   134   -1.6      1
## 40     40     1   131   -1.9      1
## 41     41     1   133   -1.7      1
## 42     42     1   133   -1.7      1
## 43     43     1   133   -1.7      1
## 44     44     1   126   -2.4      1
## 45     45     1   133   -1.7      1
## 46     46     1   133   -1.7      1
## 47     47     1   133   -1.7      1
## 48     48     1   122   -2.8      1
## 49     49     1   136   -1.4      1
## 50     50     1   136   -1.4      1
## 51     51     1   128   -2.2      1
## 52     52     1   145   -0.5      1
## 53     53     1   129   -2.1      1
## 54     54     1   127   -2.3      1
## 55     55     1   127   -2.3      1
## 56     56     1   133   -1.7      1
## 57     57     1   124   -2.6      1
## 58     58     1   127   -2.3      1
## 59     59     1   127   -2.3      1
## 60     60     1   126   -2.4      1
## 61     61     1   134   -1.6      1
## 62     62     1   125   -2.5      1
## 63     63     1   142   -0.8      1
## 64     64     1   142   -0.8      1
## 65     65     1   132   -1.8      1
## 66     66     1   124   -2.6      1
## 67     67     1   124   -2.6      1
## 68     68     1   127   -2.3      1
## 69     69     1   133   -1.7      1
## 70     70     1   130   -2.0      1
## 71     71     1   129   -2.1      1
## 72     72     1   124   -2.6      1
## 73     73     1   129   -2.1      1
## 74     74     1   147   -0.3      1
## 75     75     1   125   -2.5      1
## 76     76     1   125   -2.5      1
## 77     77     1   128   -2.2      1
## 78     78     1   121   -2.9      1
## 79     79     1   134   -1.6      1
## 80     80     1   134   -1.6      1
## 81     81     1   134   -1.6      1
## 82     82     1   130   -2.0      1
## 83     83     1   127   -2.3      1
## 84     84     1   128   -2.2      1
## 85     85     1   130   -2.0      1
## 86     86     1   130   -2.0      1
## 87     87     1   127   -2.3      1
## 88     88     1   124   -2.6      1
## 89     89     1   127   -2.3      1
## 90     90     1   167    1.7      1
## 91     91     1   130   -2.0      1
## 92     92     1   130   -2.0      1
## 93     93     1   127   -2.3      1
## 94     94     1   126   -2.4      1
## 95     95     1   132   -1.8      1
## 96     96     1   129   -2.1      1
## 97     97     1   132   -1.8      1
## 98     98     1   122   -2.8      1
## 99     99     1   149   -0.1      1
## 100   100     1   125   -2.5      1
## 101   101     1   131   -1.9      1
## 102   102     1   127   -2.3      1
## 103   103     1   130   -2.0      1
## 104   104     1   129   -2.1      1
## 105   105     1   126   -2.4      1
## 106   106     1   129   -2.1      1
## 107   107     1   127   -2.3      1
## 108   108     1   125   -2.5      1
## 109   109     1   134   -1.6      1
## 110   110     1   127   -2.3      1
## 111   111     1   134   -1.6      1
## 112   112     1   128   -2.2      1
## 113   113     1   128   -2.2      1
## 114   114     1   128   -2.2      1
## 115   115     1   129   -2.1      1
## 116   116     1   129   -2.1      1
## 117   117     1   128   -2.2      1
## 118   118     1   129   -2.1      1
## 119   119     1   124   -2.6      1
## 120   120     1   126   -2.4      1
## 121   121     1   124   -2.6      1
## 122   122     1   133   -1.7      1
## 123   123     1   126   -2.4      1
## 124   124     1   126   -2.4      1
## 125   125     1   126   -2.4      1
## 126   126     1   126   -2.4      1
## 127   127     1   126   -2.4      1
## 128   128     1   126   -2.4      1
## 129   129     1   126   -2.4      1
## 130   130     1   125   -2.5      1
## 131   131     1   125   -2.5      1
## 132   132     1   132   -1.8      1
## 133   133     1   134   -1.6      1
## 134   134     1   150    0.0      1
## 135   135     1   131   -1.9      1
## 136   136     1   131   -1.9      1
## 137   137     1   134   -1.6      1
## 138   138     1   132   -1.8      1
## 139   139     1   126   -2.4      1
## 140   140     1   129   -2.1      1
## 141   141     1   131   -1.9      1
## 142   142     1   125   -2.5      1
## 143   143     1   124   -2.6      1
## 144   144     1   146   -0.4      1
## 145   145     1   128   -2.2      1
## 146   146     1   123   -2.7      1
## 147   147     1   123   -2.7      1
## 148   148     1   129   -2.1      1
## 149   149     1   130   -2.0      1
## 150   150     1   130   -2.0      1
## 151   151     1   122   -2.8      1
## 152   152     1   123   -2.7      1
## 153   153     1   123   -2.7      1
## 154   154     1   123   -2.7      1
## 155   155     1   123   -2.7      1
## 156   156     1   127   -2.3      1
## 157   157     1   146   -0.4      1
## 158   158     1   124   -2.6      1
## 159   159     1   131   -1.9      1
## 160   160     1   130   -2.0      1
## 161   161     1   144   -0.6      1
## 162   162     1   135   -1.5      1
## 163   163     1   135   -1.5      1
## 164   164     1   124   -2.6      1
## 165   165     1   143   -0.7      1
## 166   166     1   127   -2.3      1
## 167   167     1   135   -1.5      1
## 168   168     1   135   -1.5      1
## 169   169     1   130   -2.0      1
## 170   170     1   130   -2.0      1
## 171   171     1   123   -2.7      1
## 172   172     1   124   -2.6      1
## 173   173     1   129   -2.1      1
## 174   174     1   125   -2.5      1
## 175   175     1   126   -2.4      1
## 176   176     1   134   -1.6      1
## 177   177     1   153    0.3      1
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## 1123  551     2   162    1.2      2
## 1124  552     2   149   -0.1      2
## 1125  553     2   151    0.1      2
## 1126  554     2   151    0.1      2
## 1127  555     2   146   -0.4      2
## 1128  556     2   151    0.1      2
## 1129  557     2   151    0.1      2
## 1130  558     2   150    0.0      2
## 1131  559     2   151    0.1      2
## 1132  560     2   146   -0.4      2
## 1133  561     2   146   -0.4      2
## 1134  562     2   142   -0.8      2
## 1135  563     2   142   -0.8      2
## 1136  564     2   148   -0.2      2
## 1137  565     2   145   -0.5      2
## 1138  566     2   151    0.1      2
## 1139  567     2   142   -0.8      2
## 1140  568     2   142   -0.8      2
## 1141  569     2   149   -0.1      2
## 1142  570     2   150    0.0      2
## 1143  571     2   135   -1.5      2
## 1144  572     2   150    0.0      2
## 
## $nsurveyseason
## [1] 2
## 
## $title
## [1] "ybf SSSS"
## 
## $unitnames
##   [1] "unit1"   "unit2"   "unit3"   "unit4"   "unit5"   "unit6"   "unit7"  
##   [8] "unit8"   "unit9"   "unit10"  "unit11"  "unit12"  "unit13"  "unit14" 
##  [15] "unit15"  "unit16"  "unit17"  "unit18"  "unit19"  "unit20"  "unit21" 
##  [22] "unit22"  "unit23"  "unit24"  "unit25"  "unit26"  "unit27"  "unit28" 
##  [29] "unit29"  "unit30"  "unit31"  "unit32"  "unit33"  "unit34"  "unit35" 
##  [36] "unit36"  "unit37"  "unit38"  "unit39"  "unit40"  "unit41"  "unit42" 
##  [43] "unit43"  "unit44"  "unit45"  "unit46"  "unit47"  "unit48"  "unit49" 
##  [50] "unit50"  "unit51"  "unit52"  "unit53"  "unit54"  "unit55"  "unit56" 
##  [57] "unit57"  "unit58"  "unit59"  "unit60"  "unit61"  "unit62"  "unit63" 
##  [64] "unit64"  "unit65"  "unit66"  "unit67"  "unit68"  "unit69"  "unit70" 
##  [71] "unit71"  "unit72"  "unit73"  "unit74"  "unit75"  "unit76"  "unit77" 
##  [78] "unit78"  "unit79"  "unit80"  "unit81"  "unit82"  "unit83"  "unit84" 
##  [85] "unit85"  "unit86"  "unit87"  "unit88"  "unit89"  "unit90"  "unit91" 
##  [92] "unit92"  "unit93"  "unit94"  "unit95"  "unit96"  "unit97"  "unit98" 
##  [99] "unit99"  "unit100" "unit101" "unit102" "unit103" "unit104" "unit105"
## [106] "unit106" "unit107" "unit108" "unit109" "unit110" "unit111" "unit112"
## [113] "unit113" "unit114" "unit115" "unit116" "unit117" "unit118" "unit119"
## [120] "unit120" "unit121" "unit122" "unit123" "unit124" "unit125" "unit126"
## [127] "unit127" "unit128" "unit129" "unit130" "unit131" "unit132" "unit133"
## [134] "unit134" "unit135" "unit136" "unit137" "unit138" "unit139" "unit140"
## [141] "unit141" "unit142" "unit143" "unit144" "unit145" "unit146" "unit147"
## [148] "unit148" "unit149" "unit150" "unit151" "unit152" "unit153" "unit154"
## [155] "unit155" "unit156" "unit157" "unit158" "unit159" "unit160" "unit161"
## [162] "unit162" "unit163" "unit164" "unit165" "unit166" "unit167" "unit168"
## [169] "unit169" "unit170" "unit171" "unit172" "unit173" "unit174" "unit175"
## [176] "unit176" "unit177" "unit178" "unit179" "unit180" "unit181" "unit182"
## [183] "unit183" "unit184" "unit185" "unit186" "unit187" "unit188" "unit189"
## [190] "unit190" "unit191" "unit192" "unit193" "unit194" "unit195" "unit196"
## [197] "unit197" "unit198" "unit199" "unit200" "unit201" "unit202" "unit203"
## [204] "unit204" "unit205" "unit206" "unit207" "unit208" "unit209" "unit210"
## [211] "unit211" "unit212" "unit213" "unit214" "unit215" "unit216" "unit217"
## [218] "unit218" "unit219" "unit220" "unit221" "unit222" "unit223" "unit224"
## [225] "unit225" "unit226" "unit227" "unit228" "unit229" "unit230" "unit231"
## [232] "unit232" "unit233" "unit234" "unit235" "unit236" "unit237" "unit238"
## [239] "unit239" "unit240" "unit241" "unit242" "unit243" "unit244" "unit245"
## [246] "unit246" "unit247" "unit248" "unit249" "unit250" "unit251" "unit252"
## [253] "unit253" "unit254" "unit255" "unit256" "unit257" "unit258" "unit259"
## [260] "unit260" "unit261" "unit262" "unit263" "unit264" "unit265" "unit266"
## [267] "unit267" "unit268" "unit269" "unit270" "unit271" "unit272" "unit273"
## [274] "unit274" "unit275" "unit276" "unit277" "unit278" "unit279" "unit280"
## [281] "unit281" "unit282" "unit283" "unit284" "unit285" "unit286" "unit287"
## [288] "unit288" "unit289" "unit290" "unit291" "unit292" "unit293" "unit294"
## [295] "unit295" "unit296" "unit297" "unit298" "unit299" "unit300" "unit301"
## [302] "unit302" "unit303" "unit304" "unit305" "unit306" "unit307" "unit308"
## [309] "unit309" "unit310" "unit311" "unit312" "unit313" "unit314" "unit315"
## [316] "unit316" "unit317" "unit318" "unit319" "unit320" "unit321" "unit322"
## [323] "unit323" "unit324" "unit325" "unit326" "unit327" "unit328" "unit329"
## [330] "unit330" "unit331" "unit332" "unit333" "unit334" "unit335" "unit336"
## [337] "unit337" "unit338" "unit339" "unit340" "unit341" "unit342" "unit343"
## [344] "unit344" "unit345" "unit346" "unit347" "unit348" "unit349" "unit350"
## [351] "unit351" "unit352" "unit353" "unit354" "unit355" "unit356" "unit357"
## [358] "unit358" "unit359" "unit360" "unit361" "unit362" "unit363" "unit364"
## [365] "unit365" "unit366" "unit367" "unit368" "unit369" "unit370" "unit371"
## [372] "unit372" "unit373" "unit374" "unit375" "unit376" "unit377" "unit378"
## [379] "unit379" "unit380" "unit381" "unit382" "unit383" "unit384" "unit385"
## [386] "unit386" "unit387" "unit388" "unit389" "unit390" "unit391" "unit392"
## [393] "unit393" "unit394" "unit395" "unit396" "unit397" "unit398" "unit399"
## [400] "unit400" "unit401" "unit402" "unit403" "unit404" "unit405" "unit406"
## [407] "unit407" "unit408" "unit409" "unit410" "unit411" "unit412" "unit413"
## [414] "unit414" "unit415" "unit416" "unit417" "unit418" "unit419" "unit420"
## [421] "unit421" "unit422" "unit423" "unit424" "unit425" "unit426" "unit427"
## [428] "unit428" "unit429" "unit430" "unit431" "unit432" "unit433" "unit434"
## [435] "unit435" "unit436" "unit437" "unit438" "unit439" "unit440" "unit441"
## [442] "unit442" "unit443" "unit444" "unit445" "unit446" "unit447" "unit448"
## [449] "unit449" "unit450" "unit451" "unit452" "unit453" "unit454" "unit455"
## [456] "unit456" "unit457" "unit458" "unit459" "unit460" "unit461" "unit462"
## [463] "unit463" "unit464" "unit465" "unit466" "unit467" "unit468" "unit469"
## [470] "unit470" "unit471" "unit472" "unit473" "unit474" "unit475" "unit476"
## [477] "unit477" "unit478" "unit479" "unit480" "unit481" "unit482" "unit483"
## [484] "unit484" "unit485" "unit486" "unit487" "unit488" "unit489" "unit490"
## [491] "unit491" "unit492" "unit493" "unit494" "unit495" "unit496" "unit497"
## [498] "unit498" "unit499" "unit500" "unit501" "unit502" "unit503" "unit504"
## [505] "unit505" "unit506" "unit507" "unit508" "unit509" "unit510" "unit511"
## [512] "unit512" "unit513" "unit514" "unit515" "unit516" "unit517" "unit518"
## [519] "unit519" "unit520" "unit521" "unit522" "unit523" "unit524" "unit525"
## [526] "unit526" "unit527" "unit528" "unit529" "unit530" "unit531" "unit532"
## [533] "unit533" "unit534" "unit535" "unit536" "unit537" "unit538" "unit539"
## [540] "unit540" "unit541" "unit542" "unit543" "unit544" "unit545" "unit546"
## [547] "unit547" "unit548" "unit549" "unit550" "unit551" "unit552" "unit553"
## [554] "unit554" "unit555" "unit556" "unit557" "unit558" "unit559" "unit560"
## [561] "unit561" "unit562" "unit563" "unit564" "unit565" "unit566" "unit567"
## [568] "unit568" "unit569" "unit570" "unit571" "unit572"
## 
## $surveynames
## [1] "1-1" "1-2"
## 
## $paoname
## [1] "pres.pao"
## 
## $frq
##   [1] 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
##  [36] 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
##  [71] 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
## [106] 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
## [141] 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
## [176] 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
## [211] 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
## [246] 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
## [281] 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
## [316] 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
## [351] 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
## [386] 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
## [421] 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
## [456] 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
## [491] 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
## [526] 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
## [561] 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
## 
## attr(,"class")
## [1] "pao"
# Fit some models.
# Note that formula DO NOT HAVE AN = SIGN
mod.pdot <- RPresence::occMod(model=list(psi~1, p~1), type="so", data=ybf.pao)
## PRESENCE Version 2.12.21.
summary(mod.pdot)
## Model name=psi()p()
## AIC=870.5516
## -2*log-likelihood=866.5516
## num. par=2
# look at estimated occupancy probability. RPresence gives for EACH site in case it depends on covariates
mod.pdot.psi <-mod.pdot$real$psi[1,]  # occupancy probability
mod.pdot.psi
##                 est         se lower_0.95 upper_0.95
## psi_unit1 0.2491541 0.02105004   0.210209   0.292641
# look at the estimated probability of detection. It gives an estimate for every site at very visit
mod.pdot.p   <- mod.pdot$real$p[seq(1, by=nrow(input.history), length.out=ncol(input.history)),]
mod.pdot.p
##                est         se lower_0.95 upper_0.95
## p1_unit1 0.6595744 0.04001217   0.577406  0.7331497
## p2_unit1 0.6595744 0.04001217   0.577406  0.7331497
# alternatively
RPresence::print_one_site_estimates(mod.pdot, site = 1)
## psi()p() 
##                     est         se lower_0.95 upper_0.95
## psi_psi_unit1 0.2491541 0.02105004   0.210209  0.2926410
## p_p1_unit1    0.6595744 0.04001217   0.577406  0.7331497
# Model where p(t) varies across survey occasions  
# 
mod.pt.psidot <- RPresence::occMod(model=list(psi~1, p~SURVEY), type="so", data=ybf.pao)
## PRESENCE Version 2.12.21.
## 
## Warning: Numerical convergence may not have been reached.  Parameter esimates converged to approximately  5.83  signifcant digits.
summary(mod.pt.psidot)
## Model name=psi()p(SURVEY)
## AIC=872.3015
## -2*log-likelihood=866.3015
## num. par=3
## Warning: Numerical convergence may not have been reached. Parameter esimates converged to approximately 5.83 signifcant digits.
mod.pt.psidot$real$psi[1:5,]
##                 est         se lower_0.95 upper_0.95
## psi_unit1 0.2490413 0.02103535  0.2101233  0.2924982
## psi_unit2 0.2490413 0.02103535  0.2101233  0.2924982
## psi_unit3 0.2490413 0.02103535  0.2101233  0.2924982
## psi_unit4 0.2490413 0.02103535  0.2101233  0.2924982
## psi_unit5 0.2490413 0.02103535  0.2101233  0.2924982
mod.pt.psidot$real$p[seq(1, by=nrow(input.history), length.out=ncol(input.history)),]
##                est         se lower_0.95 upper_0.95
## p1_unit1 0.6458334 0.04881285  0.5455004  0.7347859
## p2_unit1 0.6739130 0.04887346  0.5720059  0.7616658
print_one_site_estimates(mod.pt.psidot, site = 1)
## psi()p(SURVEY) 
##                     est         se lower_0.95 upper_0.95
## psi_psi_unit1 0.2490413 0.02103535  0.2101233  0.2924982
## p_p1_unit1    0.6458334 0.04881285  0.5455004  0.7347859
fitted(mod.pt.psidot, param="psi")[1,]
##                 est         se lower_0.95 upper_0.95
## psi_unit1 0.2490413 0.02103535  0.2101233  0.2924982
# Model where p varies by julian date in a linear form 
# 
mod.pjdate.psidot <- RPresence::occMod(model=list(psi~1, p~jdateS), type="so", data=ybf.pao)
## PRESENCE Version 2.12.21.
summary(mod.pjdate.psidot)
## Model name=psi()p(jdateS)
## AIC=868.8199
## -2*log-likelihood=862.8199
## num. par=3
mod.pjdate.psidot$real$psi[1:5,]
##                 est         se lower_0.95 upper_0.95
## psi_unit1 0.2486579 0.02095048  0.2098931  0.2919368
## psi_unit2 0.2486579 0.02095048  0.2098931  0.2919368
## psi_unit3 0.2486579 0.02095048  0.2098931  0.2919368
## psi_unit4 0.2486579 0.02095048  0.2098931  0.2919368
## psi_unit5 0.2486579 0.02095048  0.2098931  0.2919368
mod.pjdate.psidot$real$p[seq(1, by=nrow(input.history), length.out=ncol(input.history)),]
##                est         se lower_0.95 upper_0.95
## p1_unit1 0.6692831 0.04026427  0.5862319  0.7429731
## p2_unit1 0.5190084 0.08523262  0.3559219  0.6781425
print_one_site_estimates(mod.pjdate.psidot, site = 1)
## psi()p(jdateS) 
##                     est         se lower_0.95 upper_0.95
## psi_psi_unit1 0.2486579 0.02095048  0.2098931  0.2919368
## p_p1_unit1    0.6692831 0.04026427  0.5862319  0.7429731
fitted(mod.pjdate.psidot, param="psi")[1:5,]
##                 est         se lower_0.95 upper_0.95
## psi_unit1 0.2486579 0.02095048  0.2098931  0.2919368
## psi_unit2 0.2486579 0.02095048  0.2098931  0.2919368
## psi_unit3 0.2486579 0.02095048  0.2098931  0.2919368
## psi_unit4 0.2486579 0.02095048  0.2098931  0.2919368
## psi_unit5 0.2486579 0.02095048  0.2098931  0.2919368
# Model where p varies by julian date in a quadrat form 
# Notice we need the I() around the square term in the model to force R to evaluate it properly
mod.pjdate2.psidot <- RPresence::occMod(model=list(psi~1, p~jdateS + I(jdateS^2)), type="so", data=ybf.pao)
## PRESENCE Version 2.12.21.
summary(mod.pjdate2.psidot)
## Model name=psi()p(jdateS P I(jdateS^2))
## AIC=821.0628
## -2*log-likelihood=813.0628
## num. par=4
mod.pjdate2.psidot$beta
## $psi
##              est       se
## A1_psi -1.160932 0.107143
## 
## $psi.VC
##         [,1]
## [1,] 0.01148
## 
## $p
##                           est       se
## B1_p1                1.509602 0.294376
## B2_p1.p.jdateS      -0.721760 0.197863
## B3_p1.p.I(jdateS^2) -0.479987 0.092650
## 
## $p.VC
##                         B1_p1 B2_p1.p.jdateS B3_p1.p.I(jdateS^2)
## B1_p1                0.086657       0.002244           -0.012017
## B2_p1.p.jdateS       0.002244       0.039150            0.014409
## B3_p1.p.I(jdateS^2) -0.012017       0.014409            0.008584
## 
## $VC
##                        A1_psi     B1_p1 B2_p1.p.jdateS B3_p1.p.I(jdateS^2)
## A1_psi               0.011480 -0.007676       0.000309            0.000826
## B1_p1               -0.007676  0.086657       0.002244           -0.012017
## B2_p1.p.jdateS       0.000309  0.002244       0.039150            0.014409
## B3_p1.p.I(jdateS^2)  0.000826 -0.012017       0.014409            0.008584
mod.pjdate2.psidot$real$psi[1:5,]
##                est         se lower_0.95 upper_0.95
## psi_unit1 0.238498 0.01945928  0.2024693  0.2786974
## psi_unit2 0.238498 0.01945928  0.2024693  0.2786974
## psi_unit3 0.238498 0.01945928  0.2024693  0.2786974
## psi_unit4 0.238498 0.01945928  0.2024693  0.2786974
## psi_unit5 0.238498 0.01945928  0.2024693  0.2786974
mod.pjdate2.psidot$real$p[seq(1, by=nrow(input.history), length.out=ncol(input.history)),]
##                 est         se lower_0.95 upper_0.95
## p1_unit1 0.84848319 0.03502429 0.76652424  0.9052286
## p2_unit1 0.06359119 0.05217745 0.01204526  0.2744444
print_one_site_estimates(mod.pjdate2.psidot, site = 1)
## psi()p(jdateS P I(jdateS^2)) 
##                     est         se lower_0.95 upper_0.95
## psi_psi_unit1 0.2384980 0.01945928  0.2024693  0.2786974
## p_p1_unit1    0.8484832 0.03502429  0.7665242  0.9052286
fitted(mod.pjdate2.psidot, param="psi")[1:5,]
##                est         se lower_0.95 upper_0.95
## psi_unit1 0.238498 0.01945928  0.2024693  0.2786974
## psi_unit2 0.238498 0.01945928  0.2024693  0.2786974
## psi_unit3 0.238498 0.01945928  0.2024693  0.2786974
## psi_unit4 0.238498 0.01945928  0.2024693  0.2786974
## psi_unit5 0.238498 0.01945928  0.2024693  0.2786974
# Model averaging
models<-list(mod.pdot,
             mod.pjdate.psidot, 
             mod.pjdate2.psidot, 
             mod.pt.psidot)

results<-RPresence::createAicTable(models)
summary(results)
##                          Model  DAIC wgt npar neg2ll warn.conv warn.VC
## 1 psi()p(jdateS P I(jdateS^2))  0.00   1    4 813.06      0.00       0
## 2               psi()p(jdateS) 47.76   0    3 862.82      0.00       0
## 3                     psi()p() 49.49   0    2 866.55      0.00       0
## 4               psi()p(SURVEY) 51.24   0    3 866.30      5.83       0
RPresence::modAvg(results, param="psi")[1:5,]
##                est         se lower_0.95 upper_0.95
## psi_unit1 0.238498 0.01945928  0.2024693  0.2786974
## psi_unit2 0.238498 0.01945928  0.2024693  0.2786974
## psi_unit3 0.238498 0.01945928  0.2024693  0.2786974
## psi_unit4 0.238498 0.01945928  0.2024693  0.2786974
## psi_unit5 0.238498 0.01945928  0.2024693  0.2786974
# look at detectability 
ma.p <- RPresence::modAvg(results, param="p")

# we need to extract the site and survey and merge with survey.cov to get jdate
head(ma.p)
##                est         se lower_0.95 upper_0.95
## p1_unit1 0.8484832 0.03502429  0.7665242  0.9052286
## p1_unit2 0.6844583 0.04539391  0.5896187  0.7660759
## p1_unit3 0.7375308 0.04103923  0.6496855  0.8097969
## p1_unit4 0.7375308 0.04103923  0.6496855  0.8097969
## p1_unit5 0.6844583 0.04539391  0.5896187  0.7660759
## p1_unit6 0.8520140 0.03678740  0.7647029  0.9107098
ma.p$site <- as.numeric( substring(row.names(ma.p), 4+regexpr("unit", row.names(ma.p))))
ma.p$visit<- substr(row.names(ma.p),2,2)
head(ma.p)
##                est         se lower_0.95 upper_0.95 site visit
## p1_unit1 0.8484832 0.03502429  0.7665242  0.9052286    1     1
## p1_unit2 0.6844583 0.04539391  0.5896187  0.7660759    2     1
## p1_unit3 0.7375308 0.04103923  0.6496855  0.8097969    3     1
## p1_unit4 0.7375308 0.04103923  0.6496855  0.8097969    4     1
## p1_unit5 0.6844583 0.04539391  0.5896187  0.7660759    5     1
## p1_unit6 0.8520140 0.03678740  0.7647029  0.9107098    6     1
ma.p <- merge(ma.p, survey.cov)
head(ma.p)
##   site visit        est         se lower_0.95 upper_0.95 jdate jdateS
## 1    1     1 0.84848319 0.03502429 0.76652424  0.9052286   139   -1.1
## 2    1     2 0.06359119 0.05217745 0.01204526  0.2744444   173    2.3
## 3   10     1 0.39317523 0.07733181 0.25554528  0.5501516   121   -2.9
## 4   10     2 0.85565245 0.03560442 0.77111973  0.9125069   143   -0.7
## 5  100     1 0.57788162 0.05717818 0.46373085  0.6842772   125   -2.5
## 6  100     2 0.79403668 0.03758781 0.71073631  0.8581368   133   -1.7
ggplot(data=ma.p, aes(x=jdate, y=est))+
  ggtitle("Estimated detection as a function of julian date")+
  geom_point()+
  geom_ribbon(aes(ymin=lower_0.95, ymax=upper_0.95), alpha=0.2)+
  ylim(0,1)